Calculating striker chances
I want to provide a general expectation for strikers' chances in a single match, usually around 25–40% if they're starting.
For an example, if a player has a goal per 90 minutes (g/90) of 0.45 and plays for 80 minutes with adjustments for the opponent's low-scoring games, the adjusted g/90 becomes 0.36. This gives an open account chance of about 28%.
I can run a quick simulation if the user provides the numbers, or we could estimate based on last season's stats. Keeping it concise is key!
你指的是哪位“阿尔瓦雷斯”？是朱利安·阿尔瓦雷斯，还是耶赖·阿尔瓦雷斯，或别的球员？以及具体是哪一场对赫塔费的比赛（日期/赛事）？
如果你想先要个大致概率：对阵赫塔费这种防守偏硬的队，首发中锋常见的进球概率大概在25%–35%一场（不踢点球时）。一个快速估算法：
- 取该球员近期联赛进球/90 ≈ g90（例如0.45）
- 对手防守强则下调10%–20%，客场再下调10%
- 按出场分钟 m 估算：P(进球≥1) ≈ 1 - exp(-g90_adj * m / 90)
举例：g90=0.45，调整后≈0.36，踢80分钟，则概率≈1 - e^(-0.36*80/90) ≈ 28%。
给我球员全名、是否主罚点球、预计首发/替补和场地（主/客），我可以给出更贴近的区间和要点分析（对位、防线弱点、定位球机会等）。